Local property market information for the serious investor

Cardiff Bay Rents To Rise Quicker Than Cardiff Bay Property Prices In Next 5 Years

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The next five years will see an interesting change in the Cardiff Bay property market. My recent research has concluded that the rent private tenants pay in Cardiff Bay will rise faster than Cardiff Bay property prices over the next five years, creating further issues to Cardiff Bay’s growing multitude of renters. In fact, my examination of statistics forecasts that .. 

By 2022, Cardiff Bay rents will increase by 22%, whereas Cardiff Bay property values will only grow by 17%.

Let me explain why I have come to those conclusions:

Over the last five years, property values in Cardiff Bay have risen by 22.4%, whilst rents have only risen by 7.2%.

Throughout the last few years, and compounded in 2016, tenant demand for rental properties continued to go up whilst the Press predicted some landlords expect to reduce their portfolios in the next couple of years, meaning Cardiff Bay tenants will have fewer properties to choose from, which will push rents higher. In fact, talking to fellow property professionals in Cardiff Bay, there appears to be privation and shortage of new rental properties coming on to the Cardiff Bay lettings market.

Landlords have some intriguing challenges ahead of them in the coming years most notably in that the Tory’s have changed the taxation rules for landlords in the way buy to let properties are to be taxed. On top of that, there is the ban on letting agent fees which is still to come into force (probably in 2018). When that happened in Scotland in 2012, Scottish letting agents passed on those fees to their landlords, who in turn increased the rent they charged to their tenants.

All I would say to Theresa May and Philip Hammond is that they must be wary about indicating both red and green lights at the same time to the private rented sector. They can’t expect the armies of small private landlords to continue to house around a fifth of the population and then tax the hell out of them. They didn’t invest in buy to let as a charity or to satisfy any philanthropic urges. Something has to give – and that will be significant rent rises over the coming few years (and before anyone gives me any derogatory comments about landlords … if it wasn’t for landlords buying all these buy to let properties over the last 15 years, I am not sure where everyone would be living today – because most the Council houses were sold off in the 1980’s!).

With the challenges ahead, with the ‘B’ word (that’s budget if you wondered!), house price inflation will be tempered over the coming five years in Cardiff Bay. As I have discussed in previous articles, the number of properties on the market in Cardiff Bay remains close to historic lows, which is both good as it keeps houses prices relatively stable, yet not so good as it impedes choice for buyers… and hence why I believe property values in Cardiff Bay will only be 17% higher in five years’ time.

Whilst on the other side of the coin, with the challenges facing landlords and the significant shortage of new homes being built, Cardiff Bay people still need somewhere to live. If those people aren’t buying houses and the local authority aren’t building council houses in there thousands (because they have no money), with the average rent for a Cardiff Bay rental property currently standing at £1,022 per month …

Over the next five years, I predict the average rent

in Cardiff Bay will rise to £1,247 per month

These are interesting times. There is still money to be made in buy to let in Cardiff Bay – Cardiff Bay landlords will just need to be smarter and more savvy with their investments.

Kate Gwinnutt

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